Point Mugu, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

130
FXUS66 KLOX 200547
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1047 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...19/1041 PM.

Night through morning marine layer clouds will be confined to the
coastal areas, mostly north of Pt Conception, through much of
this week. Warm conditions are expected away from the immediate
coast slight cooling is forecast Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...19/739 PM.

***UPDATE***

It is the end of another hot day across Southern California.
Most locations were similar if not a few degrees warmer than
yesterday. 100+ degree readings were observed across Antelope,
Salinas, San Fernando, Santa Clarita, and San Gabriel Valleys.
Woodland hills reach 106 degrees. Expecting max temperatures to
remain similar tomorrow.

Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue into next week.
ECWMF guidance keeps higher H5 (3 dm difference) with offshore
flow compared to the GFS which keeps it onshore. Both solutions
result in above normal temperatures, but better potential for
heat products with ECWMF solution.

Both solutions keep Socal in the western periphery of an upper
level ridge situated over the four corners region. This would
allow the influx of mid-level monsoonal moisture to continue
into next week bringing a 5-15% chance of a mountain shower or
thunderstorm (focused over LA/VTA counties).

For Thursday, mtn showers and thunderstorms chances are about 5%
due to lack of mid-level moisture and no well defined perturbation.
Friday. CAMs are in good agreement for perturbation with sufficient
mid-level moisture (475mb-700mb) to arrive in LA county around
midnight. This activity should move mainly over LA/VTA counties
through Friday morning. The timing should dampen instability over
the area and keep chances for lightning lower (5% chance max).
Have increase POPs across the interior to 15% for this timeframe.
If this activity materializes this may dampen afternoon convective
chances especially across Lockwood valley - but with uncertainty
decided to not make any changes.

Sundowners winds are beginning to pick up but are expected to
remain below advisory levels. However, Gaviota or Refugio may
gust up to 45 mph later this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, high pressure develops over the
4-Corners area through Friday then shifts eastward on Saturday. At
the surface, moderate onshore flow will persist to the east with
weak northerly offshore flow.

Main issue in the short term will be the heat. With high H5
heights and thicknesses, as well as a limited marine influence,
afternoon high temperatures will remain quite warm away from the
coast through Thursday (mid 90s to low 100s). With the addition of
warm overnight lows, widespread moderate heat risk can be expected
across inland areas. So, current lineup of HEAT ADVISORIES for the
mountains, LA Valleys and interior valleys of San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara counties still look on track and will remain valid.
On Friday, temperatures will cool slightly, but an uptick in
relative humidity will still keep things uncomfortable. On
Saturday, the humidity will decrease a bit, but temperatures will
warm slightly in some areas. So, at this time, there is a chance
that some of the heat advisories may need to be extended into
Friday or even Saturday. People should exercise caution with any
outdoor activities the next few days as above normal heat will
even continue along the coast.

The secondary concern in the short term will be the potential for
some monsoonal moisture. With the upper level pattern, southeast
flow aloft will allow for some mid-level moisture to filter into
the area on Friday. At this time, no huge influx of moisture is
expected, but should be enough to warrant some slight chance POPs
for showers/thunderstorms over the eastern San Gabriel Mountains
and the northern Ventura county mountains Friday afternoon. If any
thunderstorms do develop, they would likely be a mix of wet and
dry storms. On Saturday, the moisture is forecast to decrease
which means about a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon.

Other than the heat and thunderstorm chances, sensible weather
concerns are minimal. The marine layer will continue to impact the
Central Coast each night and morning. South of Point Conception,
stratus/fog will be very limited tonight, but may increase in
coverage across the immediate coastal plain Thursday night and
Friday night. Winds do not appear to be much of an issue, other
than locally gusty northerly winds across the western Santa Ynez
range the next couple of evenings.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/159 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic
agreement. Main feature of note will be the upper level high over
the desert Southwest. Through the extended period, it is forecast
to just meander around the 4-Corners area.

Forecast-wise for the extended period, main focus will continue to
be the heat. With this continued synoptic pattern, temperatures
will remain noticeably above seasonal normals through the period.
The one thing to watch will be the surface pressure gradients. The
GFS indicates weak to moderate onshore gradients through the
period. Conversely, the ECMWF actually indicates some weak
offshore gradients by the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. If the
ECMWF is correct then conditions will be warmer than currently
forecast which will be watched closely.

As for winds, there will be a gradual increase in northerly winds,
in the usual locations (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor),
through the period as northerly offshore gradients increase. As
for any easterly offshore winds, the ECWMF forecast of weak
offshore gradients would result in some northeasterly winds, but
nothing approaching advisory concerns.

This pattern will limit the areal coverage of marine layer stratus
and fog through the period, with the best coverage likely across
the Central Coast. As the upper high meanders about, there will be
the continued potential for some incursions of monsoonal moisture.
So, there will be a 5-10% chance of mountain showers/thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday with about a 10-15% chance on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0540Z.

At 0450Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2900 feet with a temperature of 29 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY.

Good confidence in TAF for KSBP & KSMX, timing of flight cat
changes may be off +/- 2 hours of forecast. Cig height may be off
+/- 200 feet.

Fair confidence in TAF for KSBA with a 20 percent chc of IFR conds
13Z-17Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR, KCMA and KSMO with a 40 percent
chc of IFR conds 11Z-17Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KLAX and KLGB with a 40 percent chc of
no low clouds.

Low confidence in remaining TAFs

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF 12Z-17Z, good confidence otherwise.
There is a 40% chance of no low clouds. Any east wind component
is expected to remain below 8 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...19/722 PM.

Moderate confidence in periods of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds (20-30 knots) across the Outer Waters each afternoon
and evening into next week, with lowest chances Thursday (40-60%
chance of SCAs to be issued). Local gusts of 20-25 kt will be
possible across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast
through tomorrow, then a moderate chance for more widespread wind
gusts reaching 25 knots Friday-Sunday.

Aside from gusts of 20-25 knots reaching the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel this evening, and again each
afternoon/evening over the weekend, widespread SCA conditions are
not likely across the nearshore waters south of Point Conception.
Localized gusts near 20 knots are possible near Point Dume and
the San Pedro Channel at times.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones
      38-88-343>345-351-353-371>373-375-376-379-380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Black
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Gomberg/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox